FXUS62 KTBW 050101
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
801 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

...A FLOOD WATCH ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...

.DISCUSSION...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FL
LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ABUNDANT AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING FROM THE EAST GULF ACROSS
THE CWA. IN ADDITION THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN OFF THE SW FL COAST...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG IT AND COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONT TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CAN ALSO ANTICIPATE SOME
STORMS. THE FORECASTS AND WATCH ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO KEEP LOW 
CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 
EXPECT ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW 
EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ALL ACTIVITY TO 
PRODUCE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS AND VSBY 
NEAR HEAVIER CONVECTION. COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH ALL ACTIVITY 
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TO AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...RAIN COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS
OVER NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED INTO THE SE BUT EXPECT THEM TO
SHORTLY AND THEN BECOME SOUTH OR SW AND PICK UP TO ADVISORY SPEEDS
ON THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. NEXT FORECAST GOES OUT AROUND 930 PM WITH
ONLY SOME POSSIBLE FIRST PERIOD WIND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-
     HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BONITA 
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 
     20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD 
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO 
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER 
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...25/DAVIS