FXUS62 KMHX 291025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
525 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST BY MON AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MID
WEEK AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY STORMY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM...THE SOUTHEST IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE WHICH
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL
TODAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER GA IS ENHANCING SOME HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. HAVE
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER SOME...HOWEVER EXP MAINLY THIN HIGHER CLOUDS
SO NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN TEMPS NECESSARY. TEMPS STILL EXP TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN SW FLOW AND
INCREASED TD. THE INCREASED TD AND WIND WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MON AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING MID LVL TROF. SOME CLOUDS WILL RETURN AS THE ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE W. THE LINGERING
RIDGE AND LOW RH WILL HOLD SHOWERS OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON...LONGER
NEAR THE E COAST. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MON...THE UPPER LVL TROF AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER
SOME SCT MOD TO HEAVY SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT LACK OF NOTABLE 
INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE AT THE ONSET WILL REDUCE CHANCE
FOR TSRA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT SLOWING DOWN OF THE
FRONT...WHICH IF WE SAW LESS CLOUDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME ISOL
TSRA...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT SINCE LIKELIHOOD MINIMAL.
NW FLOW ALOFT MON NT/TUE AND COOL/DRY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE W WILL DROP TEMPS TUE...THOUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE S STREAM WILL START
ADVANCING NE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING OF THE N STREAM DIGGING S
WITH A STRONG TROF. AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES ALONG THE GULF STATES
WED...INCREASING CLOUDS IN WAA AHEAD OF IT WILL START STREAMING
INTO NC. THE MODEL TRENDS OF ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE BEEN TO SLOW
SYSTEM MID WEEK DOWN INTO MORE OF A WED NT EVENT. THE TRACK IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE FACT THAT IT IS PROJECTED TO BE W OF OUR
CWA CROSSING CENTRAL NC AND THEN SLIDING OFF THE VA/MD COAST WED
NT. THIS WOULD PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW LVL
WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND 50-60KT IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH DEEP UPPER LVL TROF (THOUGH
WEAKENING AS IT PASSES)/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET/AND STRONG
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME CONVECTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE SPOTTY...BUT COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 WITH LOCALLY 3" POSSIBLE.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESP FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS EXP ON
THE BACKSIDE. THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A NOTABLE COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE AREA EARLY THIS 
MORNING WITH LGT SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH 
VFR CIGS AOA 15K FT.  FRONT APPROACHES MON WITH INCREASING SW WINDS 
AND LOW LVL MOISTURE. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM W TO E 
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MON AFTN AND EVE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH 
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON TUES WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING AND CONTG 
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NEXT STG LOW PRES SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE GLFMX 
ON WED AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE 
AND WINDS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD 
TSRA MAINLY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE AREA EARLY THIS 
MORNING WITH LGT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND SEAS 3 FT 
OR LESS. HIGH PRES MOVES SE OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRAD 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 
KT TNGT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. PERSISTENT MDT SW FLOW 
BRING SEAS INTO THE 4-7 FT RANGE S OF OREGON INLET ON MON. A COLD 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NGT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA WITH SEAS CONTG AT 4-7 FT FOR MON NGT 
INTO TUE MORN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES 
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W. NEXT VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYSTEM 
PULLS OUT OF THE GLFMX ON WED AND MOVES W AND THEN N OF THE MARINE 
AREA WED NIGHT WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SLY 25-30 KT WED NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 6-10 
FT LATE WED CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORN. WINDS AND SEAS COME DOWN ON 
THU AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
THE SW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...SJ
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...JAC
MARINE...JAC