FXUS61 KCLE 150446
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1146 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT 
PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE PLAINS TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OHIO BY THURSDAY WHILE 
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NEAR A LORAIN TO MARION LINE AT 0245Z. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. APPEARS MUCH OF THIS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
BY 3 AM. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER THAT TIME MAY BEGIN TO MIX
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUE. 
HOWEVER...LAST FEW MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS TO BE EVEN 
DRYER. THIS SHOULD MEAN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOST PART 
LATER TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE TIMING 
THERE MAY BE A SOMEWHAT HEAVIER PERIOD TOWARD TUE EVENING AND AGAIN 
WED EVENING AS PATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SKIM THE SNOWBELT. NOW 
EXPECT BEST POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS FOR LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT MAYBE 
ABOUT 4 INCHES AND 1 OR 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES AROUND WED EVENING WITH 
AN INCH OR TWO OUTSIDE OF THESE TIMES. SO FOR NOW THERE WILL BE NO 
WATCH ISSUED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA THU AND SHOULD SHUT 
OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT A BAND OF MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES IN WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO 
STALL OVER THE SNOWBELT AND MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES 
THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST BUT 
NOTHING REAL STRONG UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY 
THEY HAVE A WEAK TROF IN THE AREA BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING...KEEPING 
A LOW CHANCE POP. ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER 
TROFS WILL BE IN THE AREA AND BY MONDAY THE FLOW WILL ONSHORE FOR 
SOME LAKE EFFECT. KEPT A CHANCE IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS 
WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM 
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE SO THAT MAKE THE TEMPERATURE 
FORECAST EASIER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z. PATCHY IFR
CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY
DAYBREAK AS GOOD MIXING OCCURS. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME SHSN
TO PREFERRED AREAS. KERI WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IFR SNOW LATER
TUESDAY. IN THE WEST CIGS WILL BECOME VFR NO LATER THAN MIDDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. IN THE EAST...CIGS SHOULD
STAY MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. W TO NW FLOW WILL
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MAINLY EASTERN PORTION AND EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN AND INTO 
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...THEN 
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKS RATHER CLEAR 
CUT TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE BEGINNING LATER 
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES. 
NAM WINDS SHOWING AROUND 30KT SUSTAINED WHILE GFS A BIT LOWER ACROSS 
THE LAKE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW DON/T HAVE 
FORECAST WINDS HIGH ENOUGH FOR GALE CRITERIA...BUT CAN SEE SOME 
GUSTS APPROACHING GALES AT TIMES AROUND THE TUESDAY EVENING TIME 
FRAME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. 
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CALMER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE INFLUENCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ABE