FXUS61 KGYX 301512
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW IN CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE SHERBROOKE
AREA OF QUEBEC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WAS SOMEWHAT ALIGNED ALONG WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN MAINE DOWN THROUGH THE MAINE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE HIGHER ELEVATION NORTHERN
LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WANE IN THESE AREAS AS THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT SNOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 12 UTC...WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WELL TO THE
SOUTH CLEARING SKIES MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR. WILL RE-ASSESS THIS
LATER TODAY FOR THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING TO BE A
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. APPEARS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE BUT
THE GENERAL TREND IS TO KEEP NEW ENGLAND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE OVER-RUNNING AT 850 AND 700
MB WILL ACCOUNT FOR MUCH OF THE QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SEEING AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAIN. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE A FACTOR AT THIS TIME AS STRONG WARMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE
FROPA ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER IN NORTHERN
ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT.
ELSEWHERE SHOULD JUST SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS.
SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
HEADS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK RIDGING HEADS INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOOKING FOR PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCLUDED LIGHT RAIN IN ALL SITES TODAY AS PRECIP
SHIELD MOVES EAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR OR EVEN VFR AS LOW LEVELS
NEVER GET COMPLETELY SATURATED. VFR EXPECTED BY 21Z WITH NW WINDS
AROUND 8-12KTS...EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. VFR ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS INT HE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY...
BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE OUTER WATERS WILL SEE WAVES JUST
BELOW 5 FT.
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST. JEAN
