FXUS63 KPAH 220528 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1128 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS SLYS
TAKE OVER TONIGHT-TOMORROW. HOWEVER MORE/HIGHER LEVEL OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS UPSTREAM COULD KEEP A PTLY-MOCLOUDY OVERALL AVERAGE SKY
CONDITION AT TIMES THRU TOMORROW. TOMORROW NIGHT MOISTURE RETURNS
IN EARNEST...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. OVERRUNNING WAA
RAINS WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND AFT
MIDNIGHT. THESE RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FA DURING THE DAY
WED AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WINDS WILL AMP UP AND
BE APPROACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA FROM LATE WED THRU THURSDAY. THAT
IS ALSO WHEN ELEVATED STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH THE MENTION OF SUSTAINING THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...ALBEIT THE LATEST SWODY OUTLOOKS KEEP THE MAIN THREAT
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WE AGREE WITH. THIS IS B/C THE MODELS
ARE FINALLY ORGANIZING AROUND A NWARD LIFT OF THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOW TRACK ACROSS MO AND OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. THAT MEANS WARMER
TEMPS/CONVECTIVE CHANCE (ALBEIT SMALL) AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL QPF COULD
AVERAGE 1-2" BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN FRIDAY. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD MEAN SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING TIL SATURDAY
BUT WHETHER THAT OR SLGT CHANCE (SMALL POPS) ITS EFFECTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

AFTER SYSTEM PASSAGE IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN ENDING THE WEEKEND/GOING
INTO THE NEXT WEEK. LEADING INTO THE SYSTEM IS A WARMUP FROM
CURRENT LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE WELCOME. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH AND AS SUCH IF IT GETS GOING ROBUSTLY...IT MIGHT TAP
INTO THOSE QPF NUMBERS AND YIELD A LITTLE LESS HERE. STRONG WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE THRU THE TIGHTENED
GRADIENT NEED TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT 24 HRS INSOFAR AS IF A
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED. NOT ALOT OF TEMP ALTERATION FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE NEEDED.

&& 

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AT KCGI AND KPAH AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEVV
AND KOWB SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z...THEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE
VFR. AFTER 18Z 5-6K FT CIGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

JAP/CW