FXUS65 KPUB 242203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

...A COLD CHRISTMAS...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD AIR THAT WILL PERSIST OVR 
ERN CO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VIS SAT SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SNOW 
OVR OUR CWA...WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF SRN PUEBLO COUNTY...BACA 
COUNTY...AND THE NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY FREE OF SNOW COVER. THIS WILL 
AID IN SOME VERY COLD OVERNIGHT WEATHER. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVR NE CO FRI MORN WILL BRING THE THREAT OF 
SOME LIGHT SHSN FOR THE NRN MTS ON FRI...BUT WILL ALSO BRING A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA. H7 TEMPS OVR THE ERN 
PLAINS WILL FALL TO NEARLY MINUS 20 C FRI MORN. GENERALLY CLEAR 
SKIES WILL HELP DROP TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH 
GENERALLY LOW DEWPOINTS. HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE 
MTN ZONES OVERNIGHT...WHERE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WILL RESULT 
IN WINDCHILLS FROM MINUS 25 TO MINUS 35 DEGREE RANGE. WILL BE A SLOW 
WARM UP ON FRI WITH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF 
THE TEENS. FOR MOST...JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE 
DAY AS THE NE CO LOW MOVES SEWD INTO KS. WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE 
RANGE FOR LAKE COUNTY...BUT NO REAL ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WALLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND...WITH COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
PLAINS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW WARMING
CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES...THOUGH WITH WEAK WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...TEMP
RISE WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST
MONDAY...THOUGH MAIN UPPER ENERGY LOOKS TO BE SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW -SHSN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUE/WED...AS
GFS KEEPS UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH WHILE ECMWF LIFTS IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO THREATEN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM TUE INTO WED MORNING. THUS KEPT LOW POPS GOING
BOTH DAYS MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAY NEED TO TRIM BACK NORTHERN
ZONES IF SOUTHERN FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES. NOT MUCH TEMP CHANGE
EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED WITH CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP MAXES MAINLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S.

REINFORCING COLD SURGE LOOKS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THU...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
AGAIN. SYSTEM COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW IF UPPER TROUGH DIGS
FAR ENOUGH WEST...THOUGH WILL RUN WITH JUST SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. --PETERSEN

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. 
JUST SOME LIGHT SHSN OVR THE SAWATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY 
FOR COZ058>063-065>068-072>075-077-078-082.

&&

$$

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