FXUS61 KCLE 052014
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 SO FAR. THESE BAND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE.
AWAY FROM THE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING. BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAY HANG ON THROUGH A
DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. DIFFICULT CALL ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE WITH AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY SET UP WITH A STORM SYSTEM SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY AND THEN A MUCH STRONGER STORM
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
THE MONDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWBELT AREA
FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH STRONGER MIDDLE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS. IT APPEARS THE REGION MAY
SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT COULD TRANSITION
TO SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SNOW TO RAIN
IN THE FORECAST AS THE WARM SECTOR PASSES INTO OHIO AND NW PA.
APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE
AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE LOOKS TO GET GOING AS COLD
AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
THE WIND WILL BE A BIG STORY WITH THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM.
LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
PLUMMETING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20S. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TREND FOR FRIDAY IS THE SAME WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH VICE THE
GFS. DROPPED POPS FOR FRIDAY TO 20 PERCENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z ECMWF COLDER THAN YDY...COMING MORE INTO
LINE WITH THE GFS. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOTS
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND HAS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CHOSE
THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST AS THAT WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER NW OH WILL SHIFT INTO NE OH
OVERNIGHT. DO EXPECT THE AREA OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT NOW
OVER NW OH TO SHIFT EAST. BAND OF SNOW OVER LAKE ERIE EAST OF CLE
TO PUSH INLAND THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW FOR A
TIME...KICKING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERN BASIN SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS FROM THE W-SW AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WEAKEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. QUICK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO W-NW. WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF CLEVELAND. CONDITIONS CALM
DOWN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A HIGH END GALE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE WNW SO NOT REAL CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LOW WATER BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS FORECASTED SOME LOW
WATER SHOULD OCCUR ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
