FXUS63 KMPX 092046 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.UPDATE...

IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOWFALL AND SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE DOWN 
THIS EVENING. HAS DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE BLIZZARD WARNING THAT WAS 
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL 
WISCONSIN THRU MIDNIGHT TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMBINATION 
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...AND CONFINE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN.  SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH IN OPEN AREAS
AT LEAST THROUGH 700 PM...THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOTORISTS TRAVELING..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ADVERSE WINTRY/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND WINDS 
REMAINING ABOVE 10 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 30 
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDE TO EXPAND AND 
CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY 
MORNING...MAINLY FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS LOWERING 
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SKIES WILL BECOME 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN 
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. 

THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SHOWED A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MOISTURE 
WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS 
GOING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE WEEKEND. 

LONG RANGE MODEL TREND...SHOWED A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN 
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE 
CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATED SOME DISCONTINUITY...ONLY 
ON THE STRENGTH OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS. 
&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. FALLING SNOW IS PRIMARILY IN WESTERN WI AND THAT
WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. THE BLOWING
SNOW HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO THEIR LOWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHERE UNDER ONE HALF MILE HAS BEEN COMMON. IFR VISBYS
HAVE BEEN TYPICAL FROM KRWF TOWARDS KMSP AND INTO WRN WI. THINK
THESE WILL ALL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH 21Z. THEN AS THE WINDS BEGIN DROPPING THE
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT MARKEDLY...PRIMARILY AFTER
DARK. THE WINDS MAY STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AT TAF SITES
OUTSIDE OF KAXN AND KSTC. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGH 22Z AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU CLOUDS PREVAIL. THESE WILL THEN
QUICKLY LIFT AND SCATTER AS THE CENTER OF THE MAIN SYSTEM DEPARTS
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W LATE TONIGHT AND WSW THU MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY 
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LE 
     SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-
     RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-
     WRIGHT.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
     DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW 
     MEDICINE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLUE
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.

&&

$$

JVM/MTF