FXUS65 KFGZ 230931
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST WED DEC 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS 
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. STARTING THURSDAY AND 
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
AND LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WAS 
BEGINNING TO HEAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE 
CIRCULATING WITHIN THE LOW CENTER WAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE 
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE 
ALL CURRENT PRODUCTS GOING UNTIL IT IS OBVIOUS SNOW SHOWERS HAVE 
ENDED. AS THE LOW HEADS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY EXPECT THAT THE 
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTIONS 
WILL BE OVER BLACK MESA AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND THE WHITE 
MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW ADVISORIES WILL RUN LATER INTO THE DAY. 
TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EASTWARD WITH THE THREAT OF 
SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ENDING DURING THE EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET-UP OVER THE 
FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A DEEP...NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER 
THE MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PLACE NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER A DRY 
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY 
AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL 
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL AND ON THE COLD SIDE. IN ADDITION...WITH DRY CONDITIONS COLD 
NIGHTS ARE IN ORDER...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A 
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW FROM THE CURRENT STORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS STILL SHOWING A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT 
SOLUTIONS BUT THE SCREAMING MESSAGE IS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED 
CONDITIONS WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE A SERIES OF 
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM OVER THE PACIFIC. 

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA 
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ABOVE 4500 
FEET. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY...WITH GRADUAL 
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TODAY FOR 
AZZ004-006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TODAY FOR 
AZZ005-008>010-012>016-018-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR 
AZZ011-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST TODAY FOR 
AZZ017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER 
INFORMATION.