FXUS64 KOUN 091732
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FA
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BY SUNSET. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/ 

UPDATE...
UPDATED PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS
MESONET AND METARS SHOW THAT WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOW ABOVE -5
AREAWIDE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE PACKAGE IS TO ADJUST CLOUD
COVER... INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WHERE CIRRUS IS SPREADING
ACROSS.. AND DECREASING IN THE NORTH WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR.
OTHERWISE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH MID 30S EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/ 

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND
SPEEDS DECREASING TODAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
COLD AND BREEZY EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN 
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WILL CONT WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT 
RUNS THRU THE MORNING HOURS... BUT MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF 
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE 
AREA. COLD DAY ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FA. WITH SFC RIDGE CONT OVER 
THE REGION TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS... MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES... AND DRY/COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO COLD 
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NW AND 
MID TEENS ALONG THE RED RIVER BY THURSDAY MORNING. USED THE ADJMET 
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE NUMBERS 
SEEMED TOO WARM FOR THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS.

MODELS SHOW SPLIT UPR FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH 
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE 
DISTURBANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY MAINLY PRODUCING MID TO HIGH LVL 
CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING 
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING SOME COOL/COLD AIR TO 
THE REGION. HOWEVER... MODELS CURRENTLY WANT TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE 
REALLY COLD AIR NORTH OF THE FA MOVING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  10  39  23 /   0   0   0  10 
HOBART OK         29  11  41  24 /   0   0   0   0 
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  15  44  29 /   0   0   0  10 
GAGE OK           22   1  34  17 /   0   0   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     23   6  35  21 /   0   0   0   0 
DURANT OK         34  16  43  29 /   0  10   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01/01/01