FXUS63 KBIS 060920
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE BITTER COLD 
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL ONCE AGAIN UTILIZE 
AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND.  

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS 
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO THE 
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED SOUTH INTO THE STATE RESULTING IN AREAS 
OF LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THIS EARLY MORNING.   

WEAK CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE SHORT 
TERM PERIOD (SUN-TUE) AS THE COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS 
SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
SUBZERO/NEAR ZERO LOWS...AND HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO 
LOW TEENS. TUESDAY ATTM LOOKS TO BE THE COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY 
REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE THE LOW CIGS PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND 
MAYBE INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING IS BEING 
INDICATING LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS INTO 
CENTRAL/EASTERN MT. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH HIGH SKY COVER AND 
MENTION SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH MONDAY 
NIGHT...BACKING OFF ON THE CLOUDS AND LEAVING FLURRIES OUT FOR 
TUESDAY.  

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN 
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME TO ACCOUNT FOR A MAJOR 
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL 
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STRETCH...BUT THE 
GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR 
SOUTH. 
 

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING 
FROM THE DEEP ARCTIC LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS BY THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES AND TRANSITIONS FROM 
NORTHWESTERLY TO NEARLY ZONAL BY THE END OF THE TERM. DESPITE 
THIS...THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN A VERY COLD AIRMASS...THUS 
WILL KEEP FORECAST TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE 
ENTIRE PERIOD. MOST MAJOR WEATHERMAKERS SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH...SO 
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING 
COLD AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED 
OVERNIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MOST 
SITES WILL BE MVFR / IFR WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD 
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BPN/JPM