FXUS61 KILN 271806
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
106 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING THE NIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MIX COMING TO AN END. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
YET BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN FCST FOR AFTN. CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE WEST SO PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD THERE. MORE CLOUDS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TODAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO UNDER CURRENT FCST HIGHS BUT
WILL LEAVE ALONE AS SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS FA TNGT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. RIDGE
WILL BE E OF THE FA BY 12Z SAT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WITH SW WINDS A DECENT WARM UP.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 FLOW ZONAL SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY. ALL BRING A CDFNT INTO THE REGION AS A S/W SWINGS THRU THE
LAKES. UPPED POPS A LITTLE SUN AFTN IN THE NW...BUT STILL LEFT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SAT WITH THE
EXPECTED SUN...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEVELOPING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREAD INTO REGION. MODELS BRINGING BEST RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF SOLUTION. SMALL CHC FOR SUN AFTN. LEFT SMALL CHC FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW SHOULD MODELS SLOW A BIT. SHOULD BE RAIN
THROUGH PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE CHANGED ON SYSTEM EVOLVING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS. 
TAKING MORE EASTERN TRACK OF LOW WHICH LEAVES AREA DRY WITH COLDEST 
AIR OF THE SEASON COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL TAKE 
ANOTHER LOOK AT MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE OF FCST IF ANY 
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW 
GUIDANCE THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS LINGERING IN CAA BEHIND TROUGH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS BUT
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. DRYING SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS LESSEN AS
GRADIENT RELAXES THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT LUK
BUT NOT INCLUDED SINCE IT SHOULD NOT BE WORSE THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBY.
HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONTINUED

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. 

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JDR