FXUS61 KBTV 051746
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BURLINGTON WHERE ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN
MINOR ONES. STILL LOOKING AT A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT AND LESSER CHANCES AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND WILL TWEAK AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...GENERALLY THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS A VORT
MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
NAM/WRF MODELS ALSO INDICATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATION WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ARRIVE BY MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM AND HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LOW AMPLITUDE 700MB TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LESSENING OF CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF BINOVC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR WITH A SFC RIDGE AND
MOBILE 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE CRESTING ACROSS THE NERN U.S..
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TUESDAY AFTN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SW-NE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARY LOW
TRACKING NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ONSET OF WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH SFC RIDGE SLIDING EWD INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS AN INLAND TRACK
OF PRIMARY SFC LOW...THOUGH SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY PER GFS/ECMWF.
IT/S STILL EARLY TO DETERMINE P-TYPE...SO HAVE USED GFS ENSEMBLE
AS A GUIDE WITH POTENTIAL FOR 850MB WARMING ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE
REGION AS PRIMARY 850MB LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST/NW. THUS...HAVE
GONE ABOVE MEX-MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW...PENDING EVENTUAL TRACK AND COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY...QPF LOOKS SIGNIFICANT...WITH
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES QPF
FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z THURSDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE
PROSPECT FOR STRONG SELY WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
AS LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NWLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AIDED BY LOW-
LEVEL CAA AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HAVE SHOWN 20-40 POPS FOR -SW
THU/THU NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER /-12 TO
-14C AT 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS/...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE 1-2 KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND
THU/FRI. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION NORTHEAST TO POINTS SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL BRING
AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
RESPECT TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF
KMPV AS SNOW SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA
AFTER 04Z AND EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KRUT AND KMPV THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTN/EVE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE WITH MIXED PCPN DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND FOR TUE/TUE
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE INTERESTING SNOWFALL DATA FOR BURLINGTON...COUNTING TODAY
DECEMBER 4TH OUR LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OCCURRED ON APRIL
8TH...WHICH IS 240 DAYS AGO. THIS RANKS 3RD LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT BTV...BEHIND 247 DAYS IN 1948 AND 248 DAYS IN
1945. THE TOP 2 SHOULD REMAIN IN TACT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK.
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/?/2009 ????
4. 12/1/1948 40.7
5. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
8. 11/28/1913 56.5
9. 11/27/1941 57.7
10. 11/26/1982 80.5
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...EVENSON/BANACOS
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
