FXUS61 KLWX 060202
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...AND THUS ALL WINTER
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED. PLEASE REFER TO THE WBCPNSLWX PRODUCT
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. SHOULD KEEP
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO STAY AOA 10 MPH FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRATOCU WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING THAT WORKS IN LATER AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S...MAYBE
EVEN SOME TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THESE TEMPERATURES PROMOTING FREEZING OF ANY
WETNESS...SNOW...SLUSH /OF WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT/ ON THE
ROADS AND THE LIKE LEADING TO DANGEROUS BLACK ICE. SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO CALL ATTENTION TO THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT THE MID ATLC RGN TNGT AND BE REPLACED BY
HIGH PRES. BLV THE EVE WL BEGIN W/ CLDY SKIES AND BY MRNG SKIES WL
BE SUNNY. PRES GRAD BTWN THE LOW/HIGH WL GIVE AREA A BRZY/WINDY
NGT ALONG W/ SUBFRZG TEMPS EVERYWHERE XCPT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY WL LIVE UP TO ITS TITLE AS THERE WL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE... ALTHO IT WL BE COOL GIVEN SNOW COVER AND FACT THAT SUN
WL BE USING ITS ENERGY TO MELT SNOW RATHER THAN WARM AIR. AVG
HIGHS AT THIS TIME OF YR ARE IN U40S. IN ERN HALF OF CWA TMRW WL
ONLY SEE HIGHS IN L40S...AND WRN HALF ONLY U30S. HIGHLANDS WL BE
LUCKY TO REACH M30S.

HIGH PRES RMNS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT. W/ GOOD RAD CONDS TEMPS WL AGN 
BE SUBFRZG EVERYWHERE - MU TEENS IN HIGHLANDS TO L30S ALONG THE BAY.

UPR LVL SHORTWV TO MOVE N OF THE CWA MON NGT. CLDS WL BE ON THE 
INCRS MON AFTN. GFS GDNC IS HINTING AT POPS ON MON BUT FOR NOW I'D 
PREFER TO HOLD OFF AS ENERGY WL BE SO FAR TO THE N.

I'M GOING TO SKIP OVR MON NGT/TUE AND GO TO TUE NGT/WED. I AM 
CONCERNED OVR THIS SYSTEM. WE'RE STILL 4 DAYS OUT...BUT FOR SECOND 
DAY IN A ROW MDLS IMPLY A COMPLICATED OCCLUDED SYSTEM COMING OUT OF 
UPPER MIDWEST LOW. I'M CONCERNED ABT THE PTNL FOR ICING TUE NGT/1ST 
HALF OF WED IN NWRN VA/ERN WV/WRN MD. IN YRS PAST I'D JUST HV SAID 
"CHC RA/SN" THIS FAR OUT...BUT MDLS HV IMPRVD SO MUCH THIS DECADE 
THAT I FEEL COMFORTABLE W/ A FZRA/IP FCST. WARM FNT LKLY LOCATED IN 
CENTRAL VA TUE NGT. WARM/MOIST AIR WL BE MOVG INTO THE AREA 
ALOFT...BUT FEAR THAT COLD AIR WL RMN LOCKED AT THE SFC IN LEE OF 
APLCHNS. THIS MRNG'S GFS PAINTS A SUB 1300M FM ROUGHLY RT 15 W INTO 
THE MTNS ALL THE WAY TO AUGUSTA CNTY.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RETURN LATE IN THE WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS SNOW ENDED...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS QUICKLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR AIRPORT OPERATIONS...BE
AWARE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ALLOWING FOR FREEZING OF
LIQUID/SLUSH ON ANY RUNWAYS. 

VFR CONDS PERSISTING THRU MON. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WL BE TUE
NGT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
KEPT SCA HEADLINE AS IS...PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT GIVEN THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT. SCA LINGERS OVER THE BAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WL BE TUE NGT AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     538>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-537-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/ABW
MARINE...PELOQUIN/ABW