FXUS63 KMKX 100937
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

FORECAST FOCUS ON WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

ONE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH
ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN IOWA...AND ANOTHER ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.TODAY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 AM THIS
MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL BE FOUND THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. 

THIS...COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SHOULD BRING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE. VALUES
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE
TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...WITH ONE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY
TRYING TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
ANOTHER AREA TRYING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MORE CLOUDS
WERE SEEN UPSTREAM WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENTERING NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
BY 00Z FRIDAY...SO MORE CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STAY FAIRLY MOIST THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRYING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. 

SO...WILL TRY TO KEEP THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF ALREADY HAS SEEN SOME CLEARING...AND WILL TRY TO
KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY SUNNY. ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD TODAY...WITH HIGHS NOT
MAKING IT ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. 

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...WITH 1000/500MB
THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING FROM THE 500S DKM RANGE INTO THE MID
520S DKM RANGE BY 12Z SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10
BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL.
KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THOUGH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRY COLUMN AT
TIMES.

.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT PER THE ECMWF. MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AM
WHILE ANOTHER ONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD
INTO SRN AND CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT-BKN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES
TODAY AND TNT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ON
FRIDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE UNSTABLE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA. WAVES OF 2 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT MUCH HIGHER TOWARD OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-056>059-062>065-067>070.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING