FXUS64 KLZK 090018 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG/GUSTY...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 14 TO 24 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST. (46)
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE STATE. THE LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE DISPERSE.
THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH WITH SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED IN ARKANSAS AROUND 06Z AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST INITIALLY BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO
35 MPH. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
MORNING...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OPTED TO STAY WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THRU THE PD. UPR FLOW IS
PROGGED TO RMN ZONAL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. A WEAK STORM SYS WL MOVE
EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT/EARLY SAT NGT...BRINGING SLGT CHCS OF
LGT RAIN TO THE FA. A NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS FCST TO WORK SWD
INTO AR MON AND MON NGT. PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE FNT IS EXPECTED TO
END FM THE NW BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN WL BE ANOTHER
FAST MOVG SFC LOW THAT WL PASS S OF AR TUE. CURRENT FCST TRACK WOULD
KEEP RAIN CHCS CONFINED TO S AR. THIS SYS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
FOR ANY CHG IN FCST TRACK AND EFFECT ON PRECIP CHCS. &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 31 39 17 39 / 50 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 38 45 22 44 / 50 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 33 15 36 / 40 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 36 42 20 42 / 40 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 36 42 21 41 / 50 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 39 46 23 44 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 35 40 20 41 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 24 35 16 36 / 50 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 34 41 18 39 / 50 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 38 45 22 43 / 50 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 38 17 39 / 40 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 35 41 19 40 / 50 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 37 44 21 42 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...44
