FXUS63 KDDC 262144
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AFTERNOON NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IMPACTS THE AREA.
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
CLOSED CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ATTENDANT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FARTHER WEST - BROAD RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION INCLUDING WESTERN KANSAS.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT,
THE MOST SKY COVER WE SHOULD EXPECT WILL BE PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
THAT WILL HAVE VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE AIR WILL ALSO BE WARMER.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE C RANGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THEREFORE AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
AROUND 9-12 UTC WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL TO ALMOST AS COLD
AS LAST NIGHTS MID 20'S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FASTER AND TO
HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MIXING TO BETWEEN THE
900-850 MB LEVELS, BUT MIX DOWN FROM THESE LEVELS STILL YIELDS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70S DEGREES IN SOME LOCATION WITH SOME
AID OF DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, THE FLOW WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED AWAY FROM NORTHWEST ALOFT
AND MORE OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE TO MORNING. AS A RESULT, SOME OF THE HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR WILL BE SCOURED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND INSPITE OF
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION, COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS
TO THE LOW OR MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCH COLDER AIR HOWEVER WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
A COLDER DAY SUNDAY.
DAYS 3-7...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FEATURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM FOR THE PRECIP TO
BE ALL SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALL THE PRECIP WILL STAY IN
OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO KEEP THE 20-30% RAIN/SNOW POPS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE A MIXTURE OF ARCTIC AND MODIFIED PACIFIC, SO IT
WILL NOT BE VERY COLD. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY COLD AIR WILL INVADE
WESTERN KS LATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BE A DEEP COLD AIRMASS SO THE MODELS SHOULD HANDLE IT FAIRLY WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COLD, BUT PARTIAL SUN AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXES TO REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.
GIVEN THE PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. IN FACT SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE
TROUGH AS FAR EAST AS THE GREAT LAKES. I CONTINUE TO PUT A LITTLE
MORE TRUST IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THE COLD TEMPS,
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 10.
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 31 67 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 30 68 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 33 70 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 29 70 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 25 69 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 29 70 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN33/24
