FXUS65 KPSR 302250
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...A GENERALLY DRY FLOW ALOFT IS
FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH TYPICAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WERE DECREASING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND SKIES
WERE SUNNY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
YUMA AND EL CENTRO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO
4 DEGREES WARMER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER
IN FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. THE AIR WAS DRIER
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WAS BREEZY WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR HERMOSILLO IN FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...OTHER THAN DECREASING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE COLDER TONIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA...UTAH...AND NEW MEXICO
WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING BREEZINESS BY THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDINESS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEVADA AND
UTAH WITH BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FROM THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO MONDAY...THEN SWING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WRAPPED INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM AS THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM FROM THE WEST MOVES IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...THERE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK
AS IF OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED. UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL AS THE WINDS...
AND COOL DOWN THE TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.
&&
AVIATION...
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX AND KIWA...
UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND ONLY FEW-SCT MID DECKS BY SUNSET. LOCALLY GUSTY NELY WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY...THEN MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 12KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...
BRINGING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS. BY FRIDAY
...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE WEST COAST...THUS INCREASING THE WINDS AND
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
