FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
318 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
...STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGES
BEGIN ON MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE MOST OF SATURDAYS HIGH
CLOUDS WITH IT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR MONDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT ENTERS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DEEP
UPPER LOW SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE ENSUING
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF LOW AND TRACKING IT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
PENSACOLA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH OUR ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE GFS IS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KTS
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A 100+ KNOT
UPPER JET STREAK OVER OUR CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MODEL STORM TOTAL
QPF VALUES IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED AS HIGH A CATEGORICAL FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME AND THEN TAPER THEM OFF TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME OFFSHORE WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO ALABAMA. HAVE
LIMITED WIND SPEEDS IN CURRENT FORECAST...BUT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MOISTEN UP TODAY AS WINDS
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...GRIDS SUPPORT
CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
BEND AND WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. AFTER TODAY...NO CONCERNS AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 71 43 75 50 65 / 0 10 10 20 40
PANAMA CITY 70 55 74 53 65 / 0 10 20 20 60
DOTHAN 70 50 70 43 62 / 0 10 30 20 30
ALBANY 70 46 72 43 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
VALDOSTA 72 42 74 47 66 / 0 10 10 10 20
CROSS CITY 73 42 74 50 70 / 0 10 10 10 30
APALACHICOLA 69 52 73 54 66 / 0 10 10 20 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...JEFFERSON...
LAFAYETTE...MADISON...TAYLOR.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CAMP/BARRY
