FXUS63 KIND 281602
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1100 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF INDIANA AND SUNNY SKIES AND 
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. STRONG H8 WARM AIR 
ADVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE 
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS IN 
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS 

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH RIDGE TO OHIO CONTINUES EASTWARD.  A LIGHT 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE LATER TODAY.  MODEL 
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT MOVES TO EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT 07Z HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH SOME
CIRRUS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL AND AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
UNFORTUNATELY THESE DIFFERENCES ARE AROUND THE 00Z TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAKE PINNING DOWN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
MORE DIFFICULT. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD FORECAST CONTINUITY
RATHER THAN PICK ONE SPECIFIC SOLUTION. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/SREF.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY
SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. THIS SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR OVER A 20 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE
SIMILAR AND A BLEND LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AGAIN AND LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

ON SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AHEAD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING QUESTIONS...AM HESITANT TO GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS AT THE MOMENT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS THERE AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CS
UPDATE...JP