FXUS64 KFWD 280239 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
839 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.UPDATE...
DECENT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LOW WITH A PW OF 0.32 INCHES ON THE 00Z FWD RAOB. DISTURBANCE IS
CREATING ENOUGH LIFT FOR MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ALSO...RAISED
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP GIVEN HOW DRY THE ATMOSPHERE IS...AND
HOW FAR ANY RAIN DROP WOULD HAVE TO FALL TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE.
85/NH
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECTING JUST MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME VIRGA WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND SOME SCT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
ONE MORE MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. CHANGES WILL TAKE
PLACE ON SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. LIFT WILL ALSO
BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM BAJA. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD ALL FALL AS COLD RAIN...
BUT AS COLD AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW WE WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON THE
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES. ALSO...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO THERE WOULD BE NO IMPACT IF
SOME MIXED PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 48 71 59 60 43 / 5 10 10 50 70
WACO, TX 52 69 61 64 45 / 10 10 10 50 80
PARIS, TX 45 67 55 60 43 / 5 5 10 60 70
DENTON, TX 48 71 57 58 42 / 5 5 10 50 60
MCKINNEY, TX 47 69 58 59 43 / 5 5 10 60 70
DALLAS, TX 49 71 59 62 45 / 5 5 10 50 70
TERRELL, TX 47 69 58 63 45 / 5 5 10 60 80
CORSICANA, TX 50 69 62 65 46 / 5 5 10 50 80
TEMPLE, TX 50 67 60 66 45 / 10 10 10 40 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/85
