FXUS64 KTSA 231144
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF LULL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPACTS TO ALL TAF SITES. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO
IFR RANGE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY CHANGE OVER TO FROZEN
PRECIP IS LIKELY TO WAIT TILL AFTER 24/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING AND A WINTER
STORM ALL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING AS A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING THE INSENTROPIC LIFT
ALREADY TAKING PLACE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE AS
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MAIN FOCUS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BEGINNING
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...
A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO
BE A MAJOR CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH
ACROSS MISSOURI.
SEVERAL DAYS OF BENIGN YET CHILLY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 35 36 14 / 80 80 80 80
FSM 62 45 47 16 / 90 90 80 70
MLC 64 38 39 16 / 80 90 80 40
BVO 60 33 34 15 / 80 80 80 90
FYV 60 46 48 14 / 90 90 90 90
BYV 57 47 49 16 / 90 90 90 90
MKO 62 38 39 14 / 80 90 80 80
MIO 62 38 39 14 / 80 90 80 80
F10 62 36 37 14 / 80 90 80 50
HHW 64 42 43 21 / 80 90 80 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
