FXUS64 KOUN 302313
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
513 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
/0Z TAFS/... SCATTERED RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES
TUESDAY. HOWEVER... TUES MORNING CHANCES WILL ONLY BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MENTION AT KSPS WITH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK STAYING DRY.
CHANCES WILL THEN BE TOO LOW FOR MENTION ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH 5H LOW TIMING WITH
EC/NAM SHOWING A NORTHERN TRACK COMPARED WITH GFS. CHALLENGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AS NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WESTERN THIRD TO WESTERN HALF OF FA
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A VERY COLD RAIN. EXPECT BY
THE TIME TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH AT OR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT
MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS BETTER FORCING MOVES EAST. WITH THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW...SOUTHWEST PARTS OF FA MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY DECEMBER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 32 51 31 / 0 0 60 60
HOBART OK 57 31 48 30 / 0 0 60 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 34 46 31 / 0 0 80 80
GAGE OK 60 25 51 24 / 0 0 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 56 32 55 33 / 0 0 20 20
DURANT OK 57 35 53 35 / 0 0 60 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/25/25
