FXUS62 KMHX 251916
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA WILL PUSH NE OFF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2PM WED...WIDESPREAD -RA HAS BEEN HUGGING THE COAST OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTH OF
LOW PRES OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA. ANOTHER BAND OF WEAK RADAR
RETURNS IS MOVING THRU THE COASTAL PLAN AND OVER ERN SC AND
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF H5 POSITIVE VORTICITY
EXTENDING UP FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE FORMER AREA OF
RAIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME MEASURABLE RAIN NEAR THE COAST THE
LATTER HAS BEEN PRODUCING MAINLY SPRINKLES FROM A HIGHER CLOUD
BASE. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A SHARP POP GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING
RANGING FROM CATEGORICAL JUST OFFSHORE TO JUST SPRINKLE WORDING
OVER OUR NW ZONES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING E INTO THE EVENING AS SFC LOW TO OUR S BEGINS
MOVING NE...AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
A DECENT CHANCE (30-50 PERCENT) FOR LINGERING -RA MAINLY EAST OF A
BEAUFORT TO PEA ISLAND LINE THRU 6Z WITH MINIMAL CHANCE FURTHER
INLAND. PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FURTHER THEREAFTER.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR ALL OF THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT SO HAVE NOT GONE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT DID NUDGE
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOST LOCALES WITH L-M40S EXPECTED MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT U40S/NEAR 50 IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM.
WITH LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE THE OBX TOMORROW HAVE KEPT IN 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THERE EARLY BUT OVERALL HAVE TRIMMED THINGS
BACK A BIT BASED ON TODAYS RATHER DRY 12Z GUIDANCE. ALSO THINK WE
WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH MEAN RH COMING DOWN
WITH DEEP LAYER SW FLOW DVLPG AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROF TO OUR
WEST. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THU NIGHT MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST PARTS...AS STRONG H5 TROF NEARS FROM THE WEST YIELDING
GOOD PVA OVER THE AREA AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING DRY WX FRI THROUGH SUN AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS FROM THE W/SW. HOWEVER...STILL A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA ON FRI WITH VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT LINGERING OVER THE REGION.
STILL LOOKING A BIT WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORE SUN AND LIGHT W TO SW
FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND NLY FLOW WEST OF LOW
PRES OFFSHORE. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/CAA PATTERN LEAVES COOLER WX
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY SPOTS
WILL DECOUPLE ON THU NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES
TO OUR NE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR SW...THINK CAA WILL STILL ALLOW MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO NEAR 40 WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IMMEDIATE
COAST. FAIRLY BLUSTERY BLACK FRIDAY EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW W/NW WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20-25MPH RANGE AND
HIGHS NOT SURPASSING THE MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
STILL SOME DISCREPANCY WITH GFS/ECMWF ON HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF SHOWS FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST. HPC
HAS FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS
FAVORING THE ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR MID MORNING AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO VFR
THIS AFTN. MAIN PCPN WILL BE ALONG COAST...E OF TAF SITES. VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM
THE SW. OAJ AND EWN SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUING INTO THU AS COASTAL LOW MOVES SE OF AREA. LOW MOVES
AWAY ON THU AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THU
NIGHT. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING ON FRI BUT
BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. VFR CONDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA TO INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN. EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS TO AROUND 6
FT OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN HALF OF WATERS THIS AFTN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JBM
