FXUS62 KMHX 271508
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE W SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NE AND CROSS THE REGION WED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM FRI...COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE NOW OFFSHORE WITH
MAINLY CLR SKIES ALL AREAS EXPECT NE CST. GUSTY WNW WINDS OVER THE
REGION ESPCLY OBX WITH TIGHT GRDNT AND DECENT PRES RISES SLIDING
OFFSHORE. WITH MIXING EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS GUSTS AOA 25
MPH THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN. COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME CU
FORMATION BUT WRLY LOW LVL FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHLD KEEP
MAINLY SCT. NO CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH MOST SPOTS AROUND 55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...TIMING COULD BE KEY ON MIX TEMPS TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. THE WINDS INLAND ARE
PROJECTED TO DROP OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WITH STRONG RAD
COOLING IN CLEAR SKIES AND TDS DROPPING NEAR 30 OVERNIGHT COULD
LEAD TO FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS MOST
COUNTIES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZE CONDITIONS...THOUGH MOST
COUNTIES INLAND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HARD FREEZE SO WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER NEEDED. FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT
CARTERET/OBX/MAINLAND DARE AS WINDS COULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN SAT AND
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER AS WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS...THOUGH STILL LOOKING AT MID/UPPER 30S DUE TO STRONG RAD
COOLING AND CALM WINDS. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...A SECOND GREAT LAKES TROF IS PROJECTED TO PUSH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON INTO TUE. THE
GFS SPLITS FROM THE ECMWF BY DRIVING THE FRONT OFFSHORE FOLLOWED
BY DRYING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
WAA AND RAIN CHANCES. BOTH HOWEVER AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE GULF. THE S STREAM JET WILL SHIFT
N-WARD AND MOVES THE LOW FEATURE OVER THE SE AND OFFSHORE THU. THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS SIMILAR...BUT APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE WEAKER IN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER BOTH SUGGEST GULF MOISTURE
RETURNING A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOMETIME MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM...LLWS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD
INFROM THE SOUTH.
PREV DISC...AS OF 630 AM...WILL ADD LLWS TO TAFS FOR ALL TAFS BUT
EWN UNTIL 14Z...WHEN BTR MIXING OCCURS...WITH 40 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT
AND SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG H5
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT RESULTED IN PEAK WIND GUSTS NEAR
35 KT. WINDS HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED BUT EXPECT INCREASED WINDS BEHIND
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 15G25KT ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THIS EVE. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED
SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MON...THEN A CHC SHOWERS DEVELOPING MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM...WIND RUNNING AROUND 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS
THIS MONRING NORTH OF LOOKOUT. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A GRADIENT CHANGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. WILL DROP THE SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS AS GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BELOW GALE IN THOSE
AREAS. REMAINDER OF AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ONLY MARGINAL
GALE...BUT WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING GOING AS ALREADY IN GRIDS.
PREV DISC...AS OF 630 AM...REPORTS FROM DARE COUNTY 911 INDICATE 2
FT OF WATERS ACROSS HIGHWAY 12 WITH SECTIONS CLOSED. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLODD WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES FOER MODERATE SOUNDSIDE FLOODING.
STRONG CAA EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO MARINE
HEADLINES. STRONG W-NW WINDS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-45 KT. WILL CONTINUE GALE
FOR SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR 35 KT THROUGH 03Z THIS EVE. GALES CONT FOR REMAINDER
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 30-35 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 45
KT CONTG THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING NEAR 15 KT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN MON AS NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. HPC SOLUTION FOLLOWED WITH FROPA LATE TUE.
.COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OVER THE OUTER BANKS IS REPORTED TO BE DROPPING
RAPIDLY. GOING INTO A HIGH TIDE CYCLE AROUND 3 THIS AFTERNOON. AM
PLANNING ON KEEPING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THEN.
WILL REEVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ103-104.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ080-081-092>094-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ130-135-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG
