FXUS63 KSGF 272009
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION. AFTER A CHILLY START...WE HAVE OBSERVED A 40 DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGE WITH ALL LOCALES IN THE 60S AS OF 1 PM. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH LEE SIDE
TROUGHING UNDERWAY IN CO/WY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST AS THE 12Z SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WAA REGIME...WITH ONLY A
MODEST INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVG.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
COLOCATION OF THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA AND MORE SO TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS
AS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY SUNDAY AND QUITE DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK IN
THE 50S...THOUGH THERE IS A RISK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MO.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE REGION CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE
PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES AND REMAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE
SOME TURBULENCE...A GENERAL SEMI PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BECAUSE OF THIS AM CURRENTLY
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
POSSIBLE. 

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. ONLY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING AS WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE INCREASE 35 TO 40KTS. AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...=THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$