FXUS61 KOKX 060541
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1241 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL TRACK TO A POINT NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIP AS EXPECTED HAS LIGHTENED AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
SWEPT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS
ENDED...AND IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE EITHER MIXED WITH OR
CHANGED BACK OVER TO LIGHT RAIN DUE TO LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE UP
THE COLUMN (LACK OF DENTRITIC GROWTH REGION).

AS SUCH...WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS ANY LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT ACCUM MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW.

RESIDENTS ACROSS ANY LOCATIONS THAT DID OBSERVE APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL WILL NEED TO KEEP ALERT FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 20S. REPORTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION SUN BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
MON. WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
PCPN...THEN HIGH PRES RETURNS ON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE PRIMARY LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT DISAGREE ON SECONDARY
LOW EVOLUTION. GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SECONDARY SFC LOW AND
TRACKS IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER INLAND WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A
WARM SCENARIO WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IN NW INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AT PRECIP ONSET.

AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...GUSTY W WINDS EXPECTED WITH COLDER TEMPS TO 
END THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORM DEPARTS...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL 
TERMINALS...WITH WINTRY MIX ENDING ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS BY 08Z. 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES EARLY 
THIS MORNING...12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FEW CU EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE DAY.

WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY CIRRUS 
TO CONTEND WITH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MON THROUGH THUR...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
WED...SUB-VFR...WIND/RAIN
THU...VFR AND WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL REACH NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WERE GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS NORTH THEN
NORTHWEST...AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR GALE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WINDS ON ALL THE WATERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 FT AND
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN SEAS BUILDING ON 
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. 
ROUGH...SCA CRITERIA SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THURSDAY DAY AS THIS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT QPF WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST/MET
NEAR TERM...JST/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...JST/MET
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET/MAS
HYDROLOGY...JST/MET