FXUS61 KCAR 302022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY WEAK RIDGING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND TRACK WEST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IN THE NORTH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE
SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. FOR
POPS AND QPF HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR SKY COVER
ALL MODELS LOOK TO DRY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH
GEM SKY COVER...HOWEVER WILL INCREASE POP NUMBERS ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS SINCE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELD SHOWS SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN LOW
LEVELS. FOR WINDS HAVE USED GMOS. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE SCATTERED AROUND THE NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. 
OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. SOME WARM
ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE
NORTH. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY STILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SO CAN'T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP BEGINS AS SNOW. WILL FCST RAIN OR SNOW EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTH...CHANGING TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE A FAST MOVER WITH DRIER AIR SURGING INTO MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY WITH SOME PRECIP 
STILL IN THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE 
TRACK OF THE STORM BASED OFF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AS OF RIGHT 
NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW 
WILL BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY ANY LEFT 
OVER PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND CLOUDS 
SHOULD HANG ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE NORTH AND SOME CLEARING 
NEAR THE COAST AND DOWNEAST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING SKIES TO THE
SOUTH. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
BRING ANOTHER STORM OFF THE COAST. THE TRACKS ONCE AGAIN ARE
DIFFERENT AND HAS A BEARING ON IF WE GET ANY PRECIP VERSUS A NICE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP. RIGHT NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER AS OF RIGHT NOW THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.
LATER MODEL RUNS NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THIS STORM GETS
CLOSER IN THE FORECAST TIME RANGE. FOR TEMPERATURES USED GMOS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED. &&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITION ON
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY BE LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
FOG ON THURSDAY. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED GEM WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN WORKING THE BEST IN
THE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR WAVES HAVE GENERATED THE GRIDS WITH
WNA/4. WIND WAVE IS PRIMARY WAVE FIELD TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT
BLEND OF NORTHWEST WIND WAVE AND SUBSIDING SOUTHERLY SWELL.

A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING WEST OF THE REGION BRINGS STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. 
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...HILL/BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER