FXUS61 KBOX 022354
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY
PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A PATCH OF LOWER
CLOUDS NEAR WESTFIELD AND THE MAIN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING
NEW YORK CITY. ONE BATCH OF RAIN AS SEEN ON RADAR ENTERING SOUTHERN
CT HAS PRODUCED OBSERVATIONS OF...AT MOST...SPRINKLES AS IT FALLS
INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER US. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW JERSEY...AND EXTRAPOLATES TO OUR AREA AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WITH 2 MB/HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NEAR
PITTSBURGH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...SUPPORTED BY EXCELLENT DYNAMICS AND A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
LATER TONIGHT.
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
COULD MIX SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS DOWN WITH THIS JET PASSING ACROSS
THE REGION /925 HPA JET UP TO 70 KNOTS...AND 80 KNOTS AT 850 HPA/.
FEEL THAT...WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN WITH THE
INCREASING S WINDS...A GOOD CHUNK WILL MIX ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
INLAND FROM THE S COAST. IF A HIGH GUST OCCURS WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM... A SVR TSTM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
EXPECT S-SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50-60 MPH POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...WHILE WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ACROSS E MA/RI/N
CT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO S UP THE CT
VALLEY INTO S NH.
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS SUGGEST UP TO 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY TO START OFF...THEN WILL RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS APPROACHING OR PASSING 60 DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WILL BE A WET AND WILD EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND EVEN SOME COASTAL FLOODING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL JUST AS QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE LEFTOVER HEAVY RAIN VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN WILL
QUICKLY END FROM W-E AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DIMINISH A
BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS E MA/RI/N CT
THROUGH MIDDAY. W-SW GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...
THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH PROBLEM AT THIS POINT.
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ON THE S COAST AND EVEN SOME
SPLASHOVER ON THE OUTER CAPE AND CAPE ANN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE DETAILS BELOW.
HAVE FORECASTED TEMPS TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT RECORD LEVELS. PLEASE SEE LIST
OF RECORDS BELOW.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY SEEING THE
SUN SET IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY A BLEND OF
12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES...BUT UPPER
LOW AND TROF LINGERS OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS KEEPS US IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND CHANNELS THE COLD CORE WITH THE TROF BACK NORTH INTO
CANADA. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL OFF FROM THE RELATIVELY BALMY LEVELS
OF THURSDAY...READINGS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES AROUND THE MIDWEST UPPER
TROF AND MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY. GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERATES A COASTAL LOW OFF GEORGIA/FLORIDA
FRIDAY WHICH THEN MOVES UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD
LEADING THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION. THE CONSENSUS
TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE...BUT THE UPPER TROF
MAY DRAW THIS NORTHWARD. THE EURO AND NAM BRING .01 TO KEENE AND
GREENFIELD /MA/ WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING MEASURABLE UP TO THE
SOUTH COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS UP TO A MHT-BAF LINE
AND GRADING TO HIGH-END CHANCE VALUES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BASED
ON 12Z INFORMATION IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT
WILL STAY OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER NEW ENGLAND ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES BELOW 5400
M. AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 M. EVERYWHERE BUT THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SO
THAT ANY SNOW WILL EITHER MELT ON CONTACT OR BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN
AN INCH. STAY TUNED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER FLOW
TURNS ZONAL...SO TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL.
WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CARVES INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND GENERATES
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH THEN MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z EURO TRACKS THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGS IT UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. EITHER WAY
AN UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS ALSO A DAY
7 FORECAST. WE WILL GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...
VFR TO START WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE BY AROUND 10Z ESPECIALLY BDL/BAF. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS 04Z BDL/BAF TO 08Z
MHT/BOS/HYA/ACK. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER 09Z-12Z PVD/HYA/FMH AND ACK. LLWS LIKELY ALL
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY PVD/HYA/FMH AND ACK WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET OF 80 KT WITH 60 KT DOWN TO 1KFT ACROSS TERMINALS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
THURSDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIFR
BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST MARGINAL IFR/MVFR THROUGH 13Z- 15Z.
LLWS AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z-15Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER TO VFR. ANY CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 4KFT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH BEST
CHANCE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...LEAST CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN NH.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS. S-SE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS LATE. SEAS MAY QUICKLY BUILD TO 13 FEET ON THE WATERS S OF
RHODE ISLAND.
THURSDAY...S WINDS AT 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO SW BY AROUND
MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 FEET
MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT WILL START TO SUBSIDE
LATE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT GALE GUSTS EARLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT LINGER ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND KEEP THE HEAVIEST WEATHER WELL OFFSHORE.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO SPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTH WIND MIXING TO SURFACE IN WARM SECTOR THU MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ALONG THE OUTER
SOUTH COAST...AROUND 2 FEET IN BUZZARDS BAY...AND 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3
FT IN THE UPPER PART OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. ALONG THE OUTER SOUTH
COAST OF RHODE ISLAND...ANTICIPATE 10 TO 14 FT SEAS A SHORT DISTANCE
OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE RI COASTLINE AND THE BRISTOL COUNTY MA COASTLINE. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE IN A FULL MOON SPRING TIDE CYCLE TO START WITH..HAVE
POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE REST OF BUZZARDS BAY...BLOCK ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE RAISED ETAS MODEL VALUES BY ABOUT A FOOT
BASED UPON OUR EXPERIENCE WITH THIS MODELS PERFORMANCE IN STRONG
SOUTH WIND SITUATIONS.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE MA EAST COAST
WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER...SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TIME OF THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM
REVERE TO GLOUCESTER AND AT PROVINCETOWN HARBOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS
RECORDED ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. THE LOW THIS MORNING AT
LOGAN WAS 35 DEGREES. AS OF THIS MORNING THE RECORD HAS BEEN TIED.
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
THUS THE RECORD WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32 IN
BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH.
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET ON THURSDAY. ALSO...SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY SET RECORDS. THE RECORDS AT OUR FOUR
CLIMATE SITES FOR THURSDAY DECEMBER 3 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
MAX T HIGH MIN PCPN
BOS...65 IN 1932 48 IN 1932 1.82 IN 1986
PVD...63 IN 1932 46 IN 1998* 3.38 IN 1986
BDL...64 IN 1932 43 IN 1932 1.60 IN 1967
ORH...61 IN 1932 47 IN 1998 1.69 IN 1986
*MEANS RECORD NOTED ALSO SET IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002-003.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
008>011-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
MAZ022>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
MAZ021>024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MAZ020.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
CLIMATE...KAB
