FXUS64 KLCH 242228
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A BREEZY...CLOUDY...AND COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN TANDEM
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...BUT MORNING LOWS
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL
LOOKS ON TARGET.

A FEW SITES ALONG THE COAST...MOST NOTABLY KBPT...HAVE GUSTED TO
OR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE LWY RIDE
UNTIL THE 10 PM EXPIRATION W/ FCST MDLS SHOWING THE STRONGEST LL
WINDS YET TO COME. 

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT COOL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SETTLING
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA UNDERNEATH FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKING TO
THE EAST JUST SOUTH OF OUR MARINE ZONES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY STRATIFORM RAINS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END
ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...AS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH YET ANOTHER GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME BEING...WENT WITH THE 06Z/18Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF...WHICH ALL KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY...BUT
PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  32  50  30  55 /  10   0  10  20 
KBPT  31  50  30  56 /  10   0  10  20 
KAEX  31  48  26  53 /  10   0  10  10 
KLFT  34  50  31  55 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-
     JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. 
     LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR HARDIN-
     JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL 
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO 
     HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM 
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM 
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL 
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, 
     LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX 
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL 
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, 
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13