FXUS64 KTSA 112111
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ROLLED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THESE CLOUDS WILL BENEFIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE YET TO
PICK UP ON THIS CLOUD COVER. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BY LATER SHIFTS.
THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON SUNDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. A DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS SUPREME.
HAVE UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE GFS DOES NOT HANDLE THESE SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASSES VERY WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 32 45 39 56 / 10 20 0 10
FSM 30 43 34 58 / 10 40 10 10
MLC 34 44 40 63 / 20 30 10 10
BVO 27 45 31 56 / 10 20 0 10
FYV 29 44 34 55 / 10 30 10 10
BYV 27 43 35 53 / 10 30 10 10
MKO 30 44 34 57 / 10 20 10 10
MIO 29 44 34 52 / 10 20 10 10
F10 32 44 36 60 / 10 20 10 10
HHW 37 45 41 65 / 30 50 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10
