FXUS65 KSLC 031622
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
922 AM MST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA AND IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
&&
.DISCUSSION...COLD DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT BEGINS
FRIDAY. FRIDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE EVEN
COLDER THAN THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS PATTERN COULD BE STRONG WINDS IN
WASHINGTON COUNTY TONIGHT AS 30 KNOTS OF 700 MB WIND AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE AND GAP WINDS NEAR
THE PINE VALLEY MOUNTAINS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT WHETHER A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN ORDER AFTER 12Z RUNS ARRIVE.
COLD TROUGH STILL ON TAP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO N. UTAH
SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINING BETWEEN MODELS ON
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. BUT EVEN IN THE STRONGEST MODEL SOLUTION
THE SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MODEST AT BEST DUE TO VERY COLD
AIRMASS AND ITS INABILITY TO HOLD MUCH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
BIGGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WITH THE 00Z EC CONTINUING TO INDICATE MORE
OF A LINK UP BETWEEN THE COLD AIR COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ALASKAN RIDGE AND THE WARM AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE WHEREAS THE GFS JUST BRINGS A SECOND COLD CONTINENTAL
TROUGH THROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO MERGER WITH THE LOW LATITUDE FLOW.
EACH MODEL HAS BEEN HOLDING TO ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH LITTLE
CONVERGENCE YET. QUICK LOOK AT EARLY PANELS OF THE 12Z GFS SHOW A
VERY SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARDS THE 00Z EC SOLUTION...BUT NOT MUCH.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 7 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...S.ROGOWSKI
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
