FXUS63 KPAH 290935
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ISSUES THIS AM CENTER MAINLY AROUND A DEVELOPING STORM 
SYSTEM TOWARD MID WEEK.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. NOT MUCH GOING ON PRECIP 
WISE THIS AM ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE 
DURING THE DAY AS MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND 
NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT...ESP DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC 
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE OH RVR BY EARLY EVENING. 
BELIEVE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE OVER WRN KY...WHERE A QUARTER INCH OR SO 
MAY FALL TONIGHT.  

AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST WED 
AND WED NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISCREPANCY 
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MID LVL SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THE 00Z GFS 
CONTINUES TO BE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER OF ALL MODELS...AND SUGGESTS 
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. DECIDED TO USE MORE OF A 
ECMWF/CANADIAN/SREF BLEND AND BRING THE SRN STREAM H50 LOW FURTHER 
NW...WHICH WOULD PAINT QUITE A BIT OF QPF OVER THE REGION WED AND 
WED NIGHT...ESP ALONG AND S OF THE OH RVR. REALLY DO NOT LIKE TO 
THROW OUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS COMPLETELY...BUT CANNOT FIND ANY OTHER 
MODEL TO SUPPORT ITS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. REALLY BELIEVE...AS THE 
ECMWF SUGGESTS...THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SHUT DOWN BEFORE 
ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO CHANGE THE 
RAIN OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW LATE 
WED NIGHT WHERE THE PRECIP CHANGES BRIEFLY TO WET SNOW. WOULD NOT BE 
AN ISSUE THO AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.  

MADE LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND WED NIGHT. WILL USE ECMWF 2M TEMPS WITH 
WED/WED NIGHT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS...REACHING THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING. AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A NARROW 
BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES 
OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS 
THAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES DURING THE EVENING. 
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD 
HEIGHTS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEFFERT
AVIATION...MY