FXUS63 KFGF 080221 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
821 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
VALUES FALLING RAPIDLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH FURTHER VALUES WILL
FALL...BUT CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND CURRENT FORECASTED MIN TEMPS
AND WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN VALUES. 00Z RUC APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
THE TEMPERATURE TREND BEST AND WILL FOLLOW FOR GUIDANCE. VALUES
SHOULD BE COLDEST ACROSS THE NW FA INTO THE N VALLEY DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH SFC HIGH (THINKING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO). DROPPED MIN
TEMPS ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES AS WELL. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR VISIBILITY AND CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
5-10KFT CIGS ENTER THE AREA TOWARD AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY TEMPS. THE BIG STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST WILL LARGELY BYPASS THE AREA TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. 

FOR FAR SE ND AND WCNTRL MN...LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT AS
CENTER OF COLD AND DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS IN NE ND. THIS WILL
IMPACT TEMPS GREATLY AS WELL. DID ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING JUST DUE
TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BUT KEPT MORE CLOUDS
THERE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY (THICKER IN THE SOUTH)
AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI TO WISCONSIN. GOOD AGREEMENT
IN MODELS IN HAVING NW EDGE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SKIRT OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. 20 POP LINE WAS GENEROUS AS SUSPECT DRY
COLD AIR WILL WIN OUT AND PCPN WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR AS 20 POP
FCST GOES...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE AS IS. MIGHT BE 1-2
INCHES S WILKIN TO OTTER TAIL TO WADENA COUNTIES TUES NIGHT-WED
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL IN WCNTRL MN BUT REMAIN BLO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AIR OOZE INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW ON WEDNESDAY.  

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC 
AIRMASS IS PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT TO SAT MORNING. 
850 TEMPS PLUNGE BELOW -20C WITH AN ARCTIC 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING OVER THE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD 
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY BUT KEPT DRY AS FOR 
EXACT TIMING AND PRECIS ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE 
MEASURABLE. EXPECT THE DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER BUT 
COULD EASILY DROP TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
CWA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG