FXUS62 KFFC 221022 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALL
MODELS DEEPEN THE H5 LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER THE
NORTHWEST U.S. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL USUALLY BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
AN H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
RIDGE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE SOURCE REGION
STILL HAS A GOOD SNOW PACK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WARMING. IN FACT TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH A SLOW COOLING
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY PER GFS/ECMWF. THIS
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND
IN THE MODELS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS UNTIL THURSDAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY GREATLY LACKING ON
THURSDAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE
AN OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE CUT BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ESF FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH HAVE
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN THERE SHOULD
BE A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OVER MOST OF THE CWA. GFS
IS BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY...YESTERDAY
IT WAS DOING IT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND IT IS CONTINUING THAT TREND. WILL DOWNPLAY THE POPS AND
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. VERY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR FOG THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY...THICKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 34 55 38 48 / 0 0 0 10 40
ATLANTA 56 38 55 40 51 / 0 0 0 10 60
BLAIRSVILLE 51 32 52 33 46 / 0 0 0 5 50
CARTERSVILLE 55 35 55 38 49 / 0 0 0 5 60
COLUMBUS 61 37 61 45 60 / 0 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 54 36 54 38 45 / 0 0 0 10 50
MACON 60 35 61 41 59 / 0 0 0 10 50
ROME 57 34 55 40 50 / 0 0 0 5 70
PEACHTREE CITY 57 33 57 38 53 / 0 0 0 10 60
VIDALIA 60 39 63 46 61 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/TDP
