FXUS64 KLCH 030520
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
UPDATE...
CAA CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 3000-4000FT
BKN/OVC DECK STILL LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT
BPT WHERE TEMP CLEARING HAS COMMENCED. AS THE LARGE SFC AND UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...EXPECT
THE CLOUD LAYER TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THU. NO UPDATES NEEDED WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
DML
MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED FOR INLAND LAKES AND BAYS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. SCA REPLACED WITH SCEC FOR 0-20NM ZONES
WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEPT SCA FOR 20-60NM ZONES WITH 20-25KT WINDS STILL
OCCURRING BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FILLING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE SOCKED
IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY DROPPING THIS
EVENING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW
MORNING THAN THE LOWS WERE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN TOMORROW WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES
WARMING THAN TODAY.
BIG STORY THIS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
WEATHER ON FRIDAY. MODELS COMING AROUND TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COASTAL LOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD
OMEGAS LEAD TO GOOD CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS
SERN TX...AND ENDING THE EVENT WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR ERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING. NOW TO THE FUN PART...
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER COLD AIR WITH INLAND LOCATIONS
BEING ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING BY 00Z/SAT AS CAA BEHIND
THESE SYSTEMS GETS CRANKED UP. NAM THICKNESS PROGS SHOW ONLY THE
EXTREME NWRN ZONES SEEING SNOW...HOWEVER MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOW
MOST OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST FLURRIES. THEREFORE FOR THIS
FORECAST HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW MENTION FOR MOST OF THE NRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALL RAIN FOR LOWER ACADIANA...AND
A RIBBON OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN BETWEEN. BY FRIDAY EVENING AM
CARRYING ALL SNOW ALL OF NRN 1/2...RAIN/SNOW MOST OF THE SRN 1/2
(RAIN ONLY JUST AROUND VERMILION BAY). FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY EXPECT WHATEVER IS LEFT FALLING TO BE ALL SNOW EXPECT
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL ADDRESS NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. IN THE INTERIM RE-ISSUED THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BETTER ADDRESS THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MINS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS INTERIOR SERN TX AND AROUND 30 REMAINDER OF NRN ZONES.
APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS
STRONG NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PERSIST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH DRIER
AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. NEXT COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK WAVES PASSING
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...EXTENDED THE SCA A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST
WIND/WAVE FORECASTS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
CONTINUES WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 39 57 42 46 34 / 0 0 10 50 50
KBPT 39 57 43 46 33 / 0 0 10 50 50
KAEX 37 53 36 45 29 / 0 0 10 50 50
KLFT 40 57 42 47 33 / 0 0 10 50 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
