FXUS64 KFWD 022113
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND
NORTH TEXAS IN ITS WAKE. COLD CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO SINK INTO
THE REGION AND A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A FREEZE TONIGHT WITH AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT STATE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST AREAWIDE.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BUT THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S/NEAR 50 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE PLAINS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT AND
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN FROM THE PACIFIC IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH. WE EXPECT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEED THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCTION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE AN AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF SNOW
IS FORECAST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE IN NORTH TEXAS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOWFALL WILL COME TO A
QUICK END BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST AND
DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.
BEYOND FRIDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THOUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW BUT REMAIN NORTH OF TEXAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 12 HOURS FASTER. A THIRD COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AHEAD
OF EACH FRONT.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 33 47 32 39 28 / 0 0 10 20 5
WACO, TX 32 49 32 36 25 / 0 0 10 60 10
PARIS, TX 30 43 30 41 25 / 0 0 10 20 5
DENTON, TX 28 46 29 40 23 / 0 0 10 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 29 46 29 40 23 / 0 0 10 20 5
DALLAS, TX 33 47 32 39 29 / 0 0 10 20 5
TERRELL, TX 32 48 32 39 26 / 0 0 10 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 46 31 38 26 / 0 0 10 50 10
TEMPLE, TX 32 49 32 35 25 / 0 0 10 60 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
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