FXUS63 KILX 092052
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 229 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
MASSIVE WINTER STORM RETREATING SLOWLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGH WINDS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR ALL OF ILX.
WINTER HEADLINES OUT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR
NW...WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST ARE
THE TERMINATIONS OF THESE PRODUCTS...AND THE ONGOING ISSUES FOR
THE TAIL END AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS WINTER STORM. SINCE THE
NAM/WRF HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STORM...HAVE LEANED VERY
HEAVILY ON THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM...AND USED A BLEND FOR THE
MED AND LONGER RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF SMALL
SYSTEMS IN THE FORECAST...THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
FLURRIES AND WIND FOR THE EVENING TONIGHT. IN AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...THE WINDS IN COMBO WITH
THE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE TRAVEL A BIT
TREACHEROUS AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ADVISORY TO COVER THAT
THREAT...WITH THE WORST WINDS SEEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE THREAT TRANSITIONS OVER TO A WIND CHILL PROBLEM AS THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE WIND CHILL DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS NEAR DAWN.
THE AREA THAT WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS IS NW OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IN THE ILX CWA...THE WINDS SHOULD BE
DROPPING BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA CLOSE TO 00Z. WILL LET THAT ADVISORY
CONTINUE...LEAVING THE EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR THE WINDS CLOSELY
AND DECIDE IF IT SHOULD ALSO BE CONTINUED...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN JUST ABOUT THAT TIME.
AFTER A FRIGID START TO THE MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEAR ZERO...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE
IT MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS AND 20S FOR TOMORROW...WITH BRISK WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS DOWN TO THE TEENS TOMORROW
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD TEMPS CONTINUE...AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT TWO SHORTWAVES IN RAPID SUCCESSION COMING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND SUN NIGHT LATE INTO MONDAY. HAVE
PLACE MARKER SLIGHT POPS...BUT LAST RUNS LOOK LIKE THE MODELS ARE
BLENDING A BIT THEMSELVES...MAKING ONE EVENT THAT HAD APPEARED AS
TWO IN THE 00Z RUNS. EITHER WAY...WAVES AT THIS POINT LOOK
QUICK...BUT CERTAINLY SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LONGER TERM.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1126 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS FROM 40-45 KNOTS AT TIMES. WHILE THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...THEY WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A RATHER SIZEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE
NEAR KPIA/KBMI. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
SURGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ031-
037-040-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ029-030-
036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ILZ027-028.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027-028.
&&
$$
