FXUS63 KDMX 300942
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
342 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING.  STRATUS IS FINALLY 
GETTING READY TO EXIT FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND 
EAST...WITH BACK EDGE ALONG KAUM/KIFA/KPRO/KLWD LINE AT 08Z.  
EXTRAPOLATION HAS CLOUDS CLEARING FAR SERN CORNER 14-15Z.  PLENTY OF 
SUN THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  RAW MODEL TEMPS AND 
GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE SUGGESTIONS. 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING 
THE PERIOD IS WITH TEMPERATURES AS NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS
ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A WARM UP EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MUCH COLDER
AIR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF SREF/NAM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND GFS/ECMWF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER 
LOW ON TUESDAY.  850MB TEMPS WARM TO +8C ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR. EXPECTING TO START OFF 
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING...CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH BY 00Z WED. WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RAISED TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DO NOT
BELIEVED 850MB TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN ENTIRELY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
NOT DEPICTING THE INVERSION TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES BY TUESDAY EVENING. FROPA LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT IMPROVING MUCH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MENTIONED SLIGHT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CAA AND SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH IN THE MID LEVELS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
FLAKES. VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATING. KEPT WITH COLD
TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C TO -14C BOTH
DAYS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS DIPS UNDER 510. QUESTION WILL BE
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT IF IT CLEARS OUT TEMPS COULD DROP EVEN
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/06Z...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SLOWER TO EXIT THAN THOT 
EARLIER...BUT WILL MOV OUT OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY ARND 12Z.  
BACK EDGE ARND KFOD 08Z...KDSM-KALO ARND 10Z...AND IN THE KOTM AREA 
ARND 12Z.  NWLY FLOW BCMG WSWLY FOR MON INTO MON EVEN  ONLY MID AND 
HI SCT-BKN CLOUDS AFT 12Z/30.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MS NOV 09