FXUS63 KJKL 020022 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SKY COVER AND
LOWERING CEILINGS. DO NOT EXPECT THE BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TO ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE JUST BEFORE DAWN. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD DELAY SATURATION JUST A BIT EARLY
ON...HOWEVER VEERING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. HAVE NEARLY
100 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WITH LOW TRACK JUST TO OUR WEST THIS WOULD FIT THE
SYNOPTIC CONCEPTUAL MODEL. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO LIKELY A LITTLE
EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OVERALL...EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE DRYING.

POWERFUL COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG CAA. SOME OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES COULD SEE 25 TO 30
MPH WINDS AT TIMES. CHANCES FOR RAIN QUICKLY DECREASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL ONLY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND DO NOT EXPECT TO GET
MUCH HELP FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. WILL MENTION SMALL CHANCES FOR
SNOW FLURRIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND ONLY SATURATED TO THE -5 TO
-7 CELSIUS RANGE. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AT THIS LEVEL AND FEEL THAT FLURRIES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO INCREASING SKY COVER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HAVE THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS THE COLDEST
WITH SOME UPPER 20S STILL POSSIBLE. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD FIND
THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH RIDGES IN THE UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND 50 UNDER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL DIURNAL TRENDS UNDER HEAVY AND
LINGERING SKY COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME 
RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SFC FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH OVER NOAM...WHICH MORPHS 
WITH TIME INTO A VERY BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC...ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST 
FOCUSES ON TWO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES WHICH TRANSIT THE REGION. 
THE FIRST PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH FL AND INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT HAVE 
ALSO BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS 
SYSTEM CLIPPING PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR 
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MAINTAINING A TIGHT POP GRADIENT ACROSS 
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE SECOND SYSTEM TAKES MORE OF A DIRECT AIM AT 
OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...DY8. PREFERRED 
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF OVER THE GFS. OF INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT 
THE 12Z GFS RUN TRENDED EVEN CLOSER TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT 
ECMWF. 

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY BEGIN WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 
BEING ON THE COLDER...NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANY 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIME HEIGHT 
SECTIONS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COLUMN SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AS 
WELL. HOWEVER...FOR YOU SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY 
LIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE 
KY/VA STATE LINE. AND THERE EXPECT NOT MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH 
OR SO...PROBABLY LESS WITH THE TREND IN THE TRACK BEING FURTHER 
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE 
BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS 
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE POLAR JET...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST...SECOND 
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WITH 
FAVORED SLOWER SOLUTION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR TUESDAY AND 
INCREASED FROM THERE. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS 
SECOND SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...JUST BEYOND 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WINDOW. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR 
NORTHWEST. THAT BEING SAID WE EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 9Z TO 14Z...WHEN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REACH THE AREA.
INITIALLY THESE WILL BE MID OR HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THEY WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 9Z. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
EVENTUAL CEILING FROM THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER...GOING TO MVFR 9Z TO
13Z...AND DOWN FURTHER IN RAIN. BY 15Z TO 17Z...CIGS MAY LOWER
FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH NOR IS DEGREE OF SATURATION...BUT KSME/KLOZ SHOULD
SEE IT ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE SUNRISE WITH KJKL AND OTHER SITES EAST
AND NORTH A BIT LATER. CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBY MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR IN AND OUT OF SHOWERS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND OPTED FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND DAWN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...JP