FXUS64 KLIX 261325
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
725 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AN EXTREMELY DRY
SOUNDING WITH A PW OF ONLY 0.21 INCHES. A VERY SHARP INVERSION
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 625 FEET IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS
AND A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET DAY AHEAD
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
GP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
SHORT TERM...
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN SUITES ARE INITIALIZING VERY WELL THIS
MORNING AND COINCIDENTALLY...THEY ARE SHOWING THE SAME SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER LINEAR TROUGH WILL SHEAR AS
IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERN EXTENTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
BUT THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL WITH TIME NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF DUE TO THE STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND MOVES NE ALONG
THE OLD BOUNDARY CROSSING INTO SE LA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PURSUIT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER EAST
TX WED MORNING AND MOVES ENE INTO THE KENTUCKY AREA BY WED EVENING
AS IT WILL OPEN UP INTO AN EVEN STRONGER AND EXTENSIVE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MOVE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SOME TS ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SEVERITY NOT
EXPECTED. ONCE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE
NIGHT NUMBERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
SEVERITY BUT ONCE ACROSS THE FRONTAL AXIS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THIS
CHANGES. OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHO GETS SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SE MOST
AREA OF LA (SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH)ATTM. SEVERE WX
NUMBERS ARE MUCH BETTER OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A COLD RAIN LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND
WED MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IF
ANY MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW
MOVES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR THIS MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
AVIATION...
VFR CAVU CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
NEXT SHOT AT LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BRING SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO
REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE INTO LA/MS MONDAY.
24/RR
MARINE...
NORTH WINDS LIKELY TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE
DAY AND CLEARLY IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES RE-ENFORCED LATER TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN WIND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND TURNING ONSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A HEAD'S UP...MODELS IN THE LONGER RANGE SHOW A
SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING GALE CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONSISTENCY. 24/RR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 32 61 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 34 62 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 39 62 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 34 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
