FXUS63 KDMX 281208
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
607 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
LITTLE OF CONCERN AGAIN TODAY.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES WARM FRONT 
ALONG KCIN/KDSM/KOOA LINE WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO 
NEAR 40 SOUTH.  AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY BUT LACK OF STRONGER WINDS 
WILL LIMIT MIXING SOMEWHAT...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG NORTH OF WARM FRONT...SHOULD 
KEEP TEMPS REBOUNDING TOO MUCH TODAY AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 
DECENT MAX TEMP GRADIENT FROM NE-SW.  SUGGESTIONS FROM BUFR 
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS THINKING AS WELL SO HAVE HIGHS AT OR JUST 
BELOW COOLER END OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IN THE LONG TERM IS TIMING OF FRONTS AND 
TEMPERATURES.  UPPER TROUGH NEAR ALBERTA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.  PREFER THE 00Z GFS 
OVER THE 00Z NAM CONCERNING THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH.  THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND FLATTER WITH UPPER TROUGH WHICH 
MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OPEN WAVE NATURE OF THE 
TROUGH. SOME COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS IOWA SUNDAY BEHIND 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO ARRIVE 
MID WEEK LOOKS STRONGER AND IT SHOULD DRAG DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO 
IOWA.  AIRMASS DRY INITIALLY WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE. DURATION AND 
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD NOT BE 
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PCPN SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING. 

SHOULD HAVE SOME SC ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.  ENOUGH CAA TO DROP HIGHS 10 DEGREES OR A 
LITTLE MORE VS SATURDAY.  WESTERLY 850 MB AND SURFACE FLOW EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUPPORTS WARM-UP.  TUESDAY/S 
TEMPS MIGHT NEED ADJUSTED UPWARD DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING AND 
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AVAILABLE.  WESTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR 
CERTAINLY SUPPORTS WARMER TEMPS.  COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT TUESDAY 
NIGHT LOOKS COLDER THAN THE AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
CURRENT FORECAST REASONABLE CAPTURING THE DOWNWARD TREND IN 
TEMPERATURES LATE NIGHT WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...
28/12Z...FOG AND STRATUS TRENDS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY.  
PATCHY LIFR-MVFR VSBYS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE NRN HALF 
OF IA...AFFECTING KMCW/KALO TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.  CONDITIONS 
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MVFR VSBYS MAY 
LINGER FOR QUITE AWHILE.  THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK TODAY...EVEN 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT...SO MIXING MAY BE DELAYED EVEN 
TOWARD NOONTIME.  NNWLY FLOW DOES INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MAY 
DEVELOP MVFR STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 
18-24 HOUR TIME FRAME QUITE YET.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMALL
LONG TERM...JOHNSON