FXUS64 KMAF 082016
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE NEAR FUTURE...DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER HAS MADE
ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS OF OVER 100 MPH IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS...AND GUST OF OVER 60 MPH IN LOWER LYING AREAS OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AGREEMENT
OF A VERY TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 700MB OF 90-100 DECAMETERS PER
200NM. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN...STOCKTON PLATEAU AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO. A WELL DEVELOPED MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN CROSS SECTIONS OF THAT AREA. THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW A BIT LONGER...SO
THE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS UNTIL AFTER 12Z AT GDP...WHICH
MATCHES UP WITH THE WIND AT 700MB NAM AT GDP. THE WIND IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS ON 700MB NAM ALSO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STACKS DOWN NICELY TO THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS
EVENING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL REACH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT AS
FAR AS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE CONCERNED.
THESE MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES FOR THE MIN TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...
WITH THE GFS HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR CAN BE SEEN
PUSHING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THESE MODELS...SO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWED BY A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE OPTED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND MODEL
TEMPS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AS THE
EXTREME WINDS PRECEDING IT WILL HAVE PUSHED MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM THE COLD ARCTIC AIR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.MIN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING OF THIS AIRMASS.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS
BRINGS IT IN A TAD FASTER AND STRONGER AND THE ECMWF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN MORE ARCTIC AIR EVEN THIS FAR SOUTH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 27 42 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 33 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 43 61 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 41 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 31 54 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 29 50 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 32 59 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 25 48 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 26 50 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 33 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...PRESIDIO VALLEY...TERRELL.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...
GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
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