FXUS65 KPUB 102156
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
256 PM MST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY COMING UP TODAY ALTHOUGH STRUGGLING
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER. IT'LL STILL BE
COLD TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS BAD AS PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS. FAST MOVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT IT WILL PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. TOOK LOWS DOWN BELOW ZERO AGAIN ALONG
THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND
SOME HIGHER PEAKS. MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
BRIEFLY AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THINK
THAT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NOT ENOUGH
WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA MOST OF THE
TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED.
FOR TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF
TONIGHT'S DISTURBANCE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG
AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 20S AND
30S ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LW
.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO FEW
CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE PROGRESSING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WAVE DUE TO ITS QUICK MOVEMENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK VORT ENERGY SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW COULD BECOME
HEAVY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH SOUTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
COMING TO AN END. EXPECT HIGH END ADVISORY TO LOW END WARNING
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OVER THE PLAINS...MAIN IMPACT OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE WINDY
CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATING STRONG 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN SLOPES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GFS IS
STRONGEST WITH 50 TO 60 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW AND MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 50S BY SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SNOW BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY MONDAY...STRONG
MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE WARMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...TIMING OF THE FRONT AND LIMITED
MIXING MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MODEL
CROSS SECTION AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAPPED
LEE WAVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. KEPT TRENDING WITH THE ECMWF WITH DRY
WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF GROUND FOG AND
SHALLOW STRATUS ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS AND A
LITTLE MORE MIXING...DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE RIVERS AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO...WILL NOT PUT INTO ANY OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. BARRING ANY FOG OR STRATUS...ONLY OTHER CONCERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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