FXUS61 KBTV 061206
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIST TODAY
IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NAM/WRF/GFS ALL
SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TODAY...BUT GIVEN MAINLY WEST WINDS THE MAJORITY OF
THE SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MY AREA. IT DOES WARRANT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THOUGH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY. ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE AMONG THE HIGHER PEAKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 30S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS
BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THAT SOME MIXING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM AND WRF SHOW A LAKE EFFECT PLUME OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE MAINE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND WINDS TURN NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD REMAINS POTENTIAL DEEP STORM SYSTEM AND HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROSPECT ALSO EXISTS FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTN THRU THURSDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FA AT 00Z WED WILL SHIFT
EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z WED. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED EARLY...BUT HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IMPINGES ON THE FA FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S BY 05Z...AND
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: DEEP SFC LOW VCNTY LWR OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS LWR MI/SERN ONTARIO BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A 966MB LOW NEAR LAKE HURON AT
00Z THURSDAY...AND EVEN THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE 984MB IN SAME GENERAL LOCATION. STRONG DPVA AND LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AIDED BY SSELY 850MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY GIVEN STRONG
UVV. ONSET OF POOR VSBY/STEADY SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER RAPID GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT POSSIBLE COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR TRIPLE PT VCNTY LONG ISLAND
BY 00Z THU...IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT DEPRESSION. THUS...STRONG LOW-LVL WAA AND SLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AS PRIMARY LOW PASSES
TO OUR NORTHWEST - AT LEAST BASED ON THE CONTINUED MODEL CONSENSUS.
WITH THAT IN MIND...A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND ALLOWS STEADY PCPN TO RAPIDLY
CEASE. OTHER FACTOR FAVORING THIS SCENARIO IS THAT THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE SLIDES TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...RATHER THAN ANCHORING ACROSS QUEBEC/ONTARIO. GFS PBL
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WED AFTN THRU
06Z THU AND SHOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SWLY/WLY AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN TOWARD
12Z THU. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU. IN TERMS OF QPF...AMTS LOOKS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
GIVEN STRONG QG FORCING AND TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SWRN ATLANTIC. LIQUID/LIQUID EQUIV. AMTS OF 1-1.5" WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RAPID MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING TOO EXTREME. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN AREAS AND THE MTNS - ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE
CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SUITE.
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS OFTEN FAVOR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS
AS WELL FROM LUDLOW TO WALDEN...WITH SELY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND
COOLING.
THE OTHER CONCERN DURING WED AFTN/NIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS. THE SELY 850MB FLOW REACHES 70KTS AT 00Z THU. NEAR SFC
STABILITY MAY LIMIT STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE VALLEYS...BUT
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND ALL HIGHER ELEVATION
POINTS THERE IS A CONCERN FOR 35-50 KT WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREE BRANCHES AND SUCH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A MORE WIDESPREAD SWLY TO
WLY FLOW OF 20-35 KTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW
PASSES TO OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY /MORE ON
THIS BELOW/.
THURSDAY: DEEP SFC LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING NNEWD THRU WRN QUEBEC TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z FRI. RATHER SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WLY WINDS
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -14C TO -15C BY 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MTN POINTS. HAVE SHOWN POPS 50-60
PERCENT IN THE MTNS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND AROUND 30
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 30F IN THE
VALLEYS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP THROUGH THE 20S WITH THE
CONTINUED CAA. WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS LOOK LIKELY
BASED ON EXPECTED SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES SFC TO 850MB LAYER. AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THURSDAY WILL REPRESENT A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY: CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
LOOK BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 506-510DM
AND 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -16 AND -18C. THIS WILL LIKELY BE OUR
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND MODERATELY STRONG
WLY/NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL WORSE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH MINIMAL
VARIABILITY ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO WINDS. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE SOME ACCUMULATION OF DRY/LOW
DENSITY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY UPR SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
OF VT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY
AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD TREND UPWARD TO THE
UPR 20S/LWR 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING
LAKE INDUCED MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 4 KFT. SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS IS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED/OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILING AND VSBY CONDITIONS IN -SHSN...INCLUDING AT KSLK.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WITH BASES GENERALLY 4-5 KFT. ALSO WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 15-17 KTS BETWEEN 15-22Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KSLK 03-12Z MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOOKING FOR LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NARROW LAKE BAND...BUT VFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NWLY WINDS 5-10 KTS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST WITH MIXED PCPN
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PCPN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE INTERESTING SNOWFALL DATA FOR BURLINGTON...OUR LAST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OCCURRED ON APRIL 8TH...WHICH IS 240 DAYS AGO.
THIS RANKS 3RD LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT
BTV...BEHIND 247 DAYS IN 1948 AND 248 DAYS IN 1945. THE TOP 2
SHOULD REMAIN IN TACT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BY NEXT WEEK.
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. ONLY
A FEW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED SATURDAY...DECEMBER 5TH. THE RECORD
LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/?/2009 ????
3. 12/5/1915 54.4
4. 12/1/1948 40.7
5. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
8. 11/28/1913 56.5
9. 11/27/1941 57.7
10. 11/26/1982 80.5
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MB
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
