FXUS61 KBOX 281156
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP
GUIDANCE TO GET THE TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING SWD ACROSS SNE ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS...AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY. HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING
WILL BE IN EASTERN MA WITH SECONDARY MAX ACROSS NW HIGHER TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE AREA. SO FAR BL TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW SO
WE CUT BACK ON THE SNOW WITH JUST A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MONADNOCKS.
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT
A CLOUDY MORNING EXPECTED IN EASTERN MA.
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM TODAY AS INTENSE STORM MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES. WE USED THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM WIND FIELD
BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS 40-45 KT DOWN TO 925 MB WITH A PERIOD OF 50 KT
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE GOOD MIXING AND PRES RISES ARE INCREASING TODAY...SO GOOD
CHANCE FOR THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH...STRONGEST THROUGH 18Z BUT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS STILL
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG TOWARD 00Z WHERE STRONG GUSTS WILL PERSIST
MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PROB FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WITH G60 MPH FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS BUT NO HWW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. WIND
ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH 6 PM WITH MAIN FOCUS FOR WIND ADVSY GUSTS
LATER TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MAY
STILL HAVE MARGINAL WIND ADVSY CRITERIA OVER OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS
EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WINDS AS GRADIENT
RELAXES. GFS/NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW AREA OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEVELOPING TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOCLDY
SKIES...MAINLY INTERIOR WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST.
SUN...HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS SNE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SW FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO THE LOWER 40S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL BE
RAIN...HOWEVER IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THE END. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY THEN SO IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION THEY
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...INTO
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6 AND -8C...SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN FACT...PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY
CONSIDERING OUR RECENT WEATHER. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK AND TO AN
EXTENT THE TIMING. THIS IS STILL IN THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIME FRAME
MEANING QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN IF THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN SOME ASPECTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THOUGH TO INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE ITS A LONG WAY OFF...AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR IF THE SYSTEM ENDS
UP TAKING AN EASTERN MOST ROUTE...BUT MOST LIKELY RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL...BOTH MODELS INDICATE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
WITH A MORE INTERIOR TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE WINDY. HOWEVER...A MORE COASTAL TRACK AS INDICATED BY THE GFS
REMAINS A BLUSTERY SOLUTION AS WELL. AGAIN THIS IS FAIRLY FAR OUT
IN TIME...SO THIS FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE.
FRIDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW THIS FAR OUT INTO A
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH TODAY...STRONG W/NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. NUMEROUS
GUSTS 30-40 KT EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF 40-45 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
12-18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 15Z. SCT MVFR CIGS EAST OF CT VALLEY...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
TONIGHT...VFR. A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4K FT EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 3K FT...MAINLY NW OF
BAF-ORH-MHT. DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT STILL GUSTY IN THE EARLY
EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FMH-HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF SCT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN. GUSTY SFC WINDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALES TODAY ALL WATERS. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS BUT NO STORM
WARNING AS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
MWW.
TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GALES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER OPEN WATERS AND WE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SUN...SCA WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING...STRONGEST EASTERN WATERS.
THEN WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING BUT MAY
STILL HAVE G25 KT IN THE SW FLOW OVER S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS. SCA SEAS PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY CULMINATING IN
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MARGINAL
GALES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. SCA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN
TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE LATEST IN THE SEASON
THAT BOSTON HAS GONE WITHOUT HITTING 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A LOWER
PROBABILITY THEN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...
