FXUS61 KILN 260201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
901 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SHOWER CHANCES INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN
NORTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING BREAK IN PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT FROPA THURS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
AND BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING. LIGHT QPF AND NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY ACCUM WITH WARM GROUND AND SHORT DURATION
OF SNOWFALL. SOME FLURRIES/WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE DRYING AND WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SETS IN. TEMPS AT OR JUST
BELOW GUID THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING OF 
THE EXTENDED WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS 
NEAR AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS...WITH 
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH 
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. PREFER TO DISREGARD THE 12Z ECMWF 
WHICH SHOWS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY AND RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS OVER 
THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE 
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GFS ENS MEMBERS. SIDED CLOSE TO THE 
GFS ENS MEAN SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A CHANCE OF 
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY 
NIGHT...BUT IF THE SYSTEM STAYS PROGRESSIVE AS EXPECTED...THIS WOULD 
ONLY BE A FEW FLAKES. 12Z GFS SHOWS DOUBLE-BARREL LOW CYCLOGENESIS 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THINK THIS IS OVER 
DONE AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR AROUND 13Z. CEILINGS
AT CVG MAY FALL BACK TO MVFR AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 6SM. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS AT
CVG AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO