FXUS62 KJAX 261956
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AREA IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW. AS A RESULT...FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. LIGHT NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NW ZONES TO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SE ZONES.
.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...SO DID
NOT DIFFER TOO MUCH FROM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...DID TWEAK MIN TEMPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT A
FEW AGRICULTURAL AREAS SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING...AND THOSE AREAS
THAT DO TOUCH FREEZING SHOULD ONLY DO SO BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. MID CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S ZONES LATER
TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE S PORTION OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUN. DUE TO CONTINUED LOW
DEW POINTS...THIS WILL MOSTLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN THE FORM OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS OVER A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH OF OUR S ZONES...BUT HAVE
KEPT QPF VALUES VERY LOW...PROBABLY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH ON AVERAGE.
CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS E US
TROFS DIGS A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER S ZONES THRU SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU ON FRI. MEX MOS VERY COLD FOR NEXT WEEKEND...
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
THE COLDEST READINGS THUS FAR THIS SEASON ON SUN MORNING. DUE TO
THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WE'VE BEEN IN...THESE NUMBERS
ARE VERY TENTATIVE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUED HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTHWARD AT GNV.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR OUR OFFSHORE
LEGS. COMBINED SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 5 FT. A RETURN TO SCEC NEARSHORE
AND MARGINAL SCA OFFSHORE MON NIGHT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT MARGINAL DURATIONS OF SUB-CRITICAL RH'S
ACROSS INLAND NE FL THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTNS. APPEARS ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS PREVENTED LOW RHS ACROSS OUR FL ZONES TODAY...BUT SUN AND MON
LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUPPORT SUB-CRITICAL RHS FOR DURATIONS OF
AROUND 2-4 HRS. HAVE NOT ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 34 59 35 56 / 0 10 10 10
SSI 39 58 40 57 / 0 10 10 10
JAX 35 59 37 60 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 40 59 43 60 / 10 20 20 10
GNV 35 58 38 61 / 10 20 20 10
OCF 37 58 40 63 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/ENYEDI/PRESNALL
