FXUS63 KJKL 032346
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 PM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT 50H LOW SPINNING THRU NRN ME WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPING
INTO THE OH RVR VALLEY. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SLIPPING FROM
SUNRISE VALUES IN THE LOWER 40S TO CURRENT NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 30S.
LOW SUN ANGLE UNABLE TO PENETRATE THE DENSE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
PUSHED UP AGAINST THE MTNS. -RA/-DZ AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 600 AND
1500 FEET HAVE BEEN THE NORM. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SC AND IT HASN'T EVEN MADE IT TO CNTRL KY. BEHIND THIS IS A LARGE
AREA OF COLD CU THAT SHOWS NO SIGN OF DIMINISHING. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE TEMP FROM DROPPING
THRU THE FLOOR. SOME CLEARING ON FRI WHICH WILL HELP THE TEMP TO
RECOVER TO NEAR TODAYS MORNING HIGHS.
NEXT 50H VORT SHOWING UP ON WV SAT OVER SWRN MN. THIS IS REFLECTED AT
THE SFC BY A TROF BUT NO CLOSED LOW. EXPECT THE 50H LOW TO DROP INTO
THE SRN MS RVR VALLEY AND LINK WITH A SFC WAVE THAT FORMS IN THE WRN
GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL TRACK UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BRING
GOOD RAINFALL TO THE ATLANTIC STATES. APPALACHIAN MTNS SHOULD BLOCK
MOST MOISTURE RETURN INTO ERN KY. LACK OF RETURN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LACK OF ADVECTED GULF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF PCPN IN ERN
KY. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN AND WITH THE BRUSH WITH THE ATLANTIC LOW...
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONTINUED UPSLOPE PCPN. EXPECT THE BEST PCPN TO BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT. ATLANTIC SYSTEM
TRACKS RAPIDLY TO NEW ENG AND PULLS ANY REMAINING PCPN WITH IT
RESULTING IN CLEARING LATE SAT. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL
FOR TEMPS AS THE NAM SEEMED TOO COLD BUT HAVE GIVEN IT SOME DUE AND
UNDERCUT THE GFS TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO.
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
TWO SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. OVERALL... PROGS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD... ESPECIALLY REGARDING A
RATHER HEALTHY SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE CHILLY SPELLS...
THERE SEEMS TO BE NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR
AREA AS FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FLOODS THE CONUS WITH PACIFIC AIR
WHILE KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS LOCKED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD... AND PROBABLY ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS OUR
SATURDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD THUS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH A FEW UPPER
TEENS PROBABLE... ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WE WILL ONLY
OFFER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH AS IT COULD BRING A BIT OF
FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IF THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
QUICKER AND ANY PRECIP ACTUALLY FALLS FROM IT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL THEN BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE SOME CHANGES WITH THE TIMING AS THE EVENT
NEARS SO ONLY INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. COLDER AIR WILL THEN WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO A CHANGEOVER TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. DRIER AND COOLER THEN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
CEILINGS WERE MVFR AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...WITH LOW CEILINGS EXTENDING
WEST ALMOST TO ILLINOIS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAS ONLY MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK
TOWARD DAWN IN OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS AROUND SOMERSET AND MOUNT
STERLING...WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DRIZZLE WAS STILL FALLING FROM THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS
AROUND 2500 FEET MSL AND SLOWLY FALLING. EVEN SO...THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE FORMING ALOFT AS LIQUID DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUDS IN A LAYER COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW FORMATION...AROUND -10C. THIS WILL PRESENT A RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT HEIGHTS WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...HAL
