FXUS64 KOHX 112130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL BE BASED ON A LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL 
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

CURRENTLY...MOCLR SKIES ACROSS N PORTIONS OF MID STATE WITH PTCDLY
SKIES NEAR MS/AL BORDER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE APEX FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS MID STATE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OK AND AR.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
TO OFF THE CNTRL ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...A 
GRADUAL INCREASING IN CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS N TX GULF COAST LOW
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID 
STATE. WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR LOWS 
TONIGHT WITH SKIES APPROACHING BKN ACROSS MID STATE BY 12Z SAT. MAIN 
FORECAST QUANDARY CENTERS AROUND IF THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN
SAT MORNING EXTREME SW COUNTIES BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET MIX DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 30S. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE FROM SW TO NE...WITH HIGHEST POPS SW DURING SAT AFTERNOON
THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN...MAINLY THE E
HALF OF THE MID STATE...AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT AHEAD OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS TEMP VALUES THRU SUN.

BRIEF DRY PERIOD STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP SUN NIGHT...
BUT DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS RAPIDLY ON MON AHEAD OF FAST
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT CONTINUES
TO DISPLAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT...BUT BETTER INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO REMAIN S. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED LATE MON...WITH DRYING 
RETURNING LATE TUE AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES. SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGH
MOVING IN BEHIND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE MID STATE NEXT WEEKEND. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  45  39  50 /  10  40  90  40 
CLARKSVILLE    23  40  38  49 /  10  40  80  40 
CROSSVILLE     20  43  38  48 /  10  40  90  40 
COLUMBIA       27  44  40  52 /  10  70  90  40 
LAWRENCEBURG   27  46  41  52 /  10  70  90  30 
WAVERLY        26  42  39  50 /  10  40  80  40 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31/JBW